Market Outlook 22-26 August 2016

For the next week (August 22-26), the JCI index likely remains in consolidation and there’s a selling pressure while the market awaits the Fed Rate decision this week. Weekly, the JCI index is between the resistance level at 5476 and 5525, while support is at level 5330 and then 5180.

The rupiah last week was seen in a correction while some investors took profit, where weekly the rupiah weakened slightly to 13,155. The USD/IDR rate next week is expected to be in the range between the resistance at 13,175 and 13,250, while support is at 13,010 and 12,990.

For global economic indicators, this week will highlight a number of important economic data. In general, a number of global economic data releases that investors should be aware of this week, are:

• From the Americas: in the form of Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday evening, then the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m   and Unemployment Claims employment data on Thursday evening, followed by the release of Prelim GDP q/q and an economic speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Friday evening.


• From the Europe and UK region: in the form of German Ifo Business Climate data release on Thursday afternoon, followed by the release of Second Estimate GDP q/q for the UK on Friday afternoon.


• From the Asia-Australia region: in the form of a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda on Tuesday morning.

Forex Market
Last week in the forex market, the dollar weakened by market estimates that the Fed will not raise interest rates in the near future, where weekly the US dollar index was seen to fall to 94.470.

EURUSD, last week the euro dollar was seen to rise to 1.1328. For this week, the euro will likely be between support at 1.0950 and 1.0820 while resistance is at 1.1426 and then 1.1615.

GBPUSD,  last week was seen to rise to 1.3058 against the dollar. For this week the market will range between support at 1.2794 and then 1.2700, while resistance is at 1.3372 and 1.3535.

USDJPY,  last week ended weaker at 100.13. The market this week will be between the resistance level at 102.66 and 107.55, and support at 98.96 and 96.57.

AUDUSD, the Aussie dollar was seen to weaken to 0.7626. The range this week will be between the support level at 0.7405 and 0.7285, while the resistance level is at 0.7765 and 0.7720.

Stock Market
For the regional stock market, last week in Asia it was generally mixed while in Hong Kong the stock market strengthened for three consecutive weeks following the Chinese stock market which rebounded. The Nikkei index weekly was seen to weaken to 16545. The current market range is between the resistance level at 16940 and 17250, while support is at 15920 and then 15105. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong last week ended stronger at 22937. This week will be between resistance at 23195 and 23425, while support is at 21725 and 20995.

The Wall Street stock market last week ended with a correction still around record numbers because the direction of Fed interest rates in the near future is still unclear. The Dow Jones Industrial weekly weakened slightly to 18,547.64, with the next market range between the resistance level at 18667 and 19050, while support is at 18244 and 17710. The S&P 500 Index last week was stable with limited weakness to 2,179.47, with the next market range between resistance at 2194 and 2220, while support is at 2147 and 2073.

Gold Market
For the gold market, last week it strengthened on issues of the Fed not raising interest rates soon and then corrected on estimates that interest rates may soon rise, so that the global gold price ended strengthening to $1340.85 per troy ounce. For the next week, gold will be within a market price range between resistance at $1376 and $1390, and support at $1310 and $1200. In Indonesia, the gold price was seen to strengthen slightly to Rp565,405.

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